A lockup expiration is permission to sell, not a plan. What to do is decide how many shares belong in this calendar year versus next — before the window, not during it.
The date on the calendar is not a sell signal. A public-company unlock, including a recent IPO lockup, only changes what you are allowed to do. It does not pick the tax year, the lot order, or how much of one ticker you can still afford to hold in December.
Permission is not a year map
For a holder with a concentrated position, unlock day is the loudest day of the year. Headlines treat eligibility as action. The tape treats volume as a verdict. None of that is your worksheet.
Three things the date does not answer:
- How much ordinary income you already have this year — wages, vests, other sales.
- Which lots are still short-term and which can wait for long-term.
- How much of one name you still want on December 31.
Those are year decisions. Write them before the window. Then the window executes a plan instead of a mood.
If more than half your net worth sits in one ticker, protect the equity from the emotion of the unlock. Eligibility is not a 2026-versus-2027 decision.
This year versus next
The useful question is not “sell or hold the ticker.” It is how many shares this calendar year, how many next.
Selling “the stock” into the print is how people mix a high ordinary-income year with a later long-term year and call it one decision. Lots from different grants are not one pile. Basis and holding period are per lot. Shares that settled at listing generally start the long-term clock at settlement — not on unlock day.
A later vest is a different clock again. Treat them as separate lines, then assign each line to a year.
Example (made-up numbers)
Example only. Not a real person and not a Lakefolio result.
Jordan holds 8,400 shares of a company that listed this summer. Cost basis is $135 from settlement. The lockup just opened. The stock is around $142. The position is about $1.19 million — roughly 60% of net worth. W-2 this year is $215,000. Some lots settled at listing. Some later vests are still locked or unvested.
Two year maps, same shares:
- Dump into the window. Sell 6,000 shares this calendar year. Gain on lots that have not aged a year past settlement is still short-term and stacks on the W-2. This year becomes a high ordinary-income year. The leftover 2,400 shares are still a concentration problem in January.
- Split the years. Sell 2,200 shares this year — enough to fund tax and take the edge off concentration — and park 3,800 for next year, after the long-term clock. Leave a smaller residual. Same unlock. Different tax year. Different leftover risk.
The point is not which map is “right.” The point is that the unlock date does not pick the map. You do, on a year grid, before you move a share.
Jordan’s actual numbers will differ. Wages, state, other vests, and which lots are even eligible this month all change the worksheet. The method does not: lots, then years, then the window.
What to do this month
If a lockup is open or about to open:
- List lots, basis, and settlement dates. Not “the ticker.”
- Write a this-year number and a next-year number. Shares, not a vibe.
- Check what else lands this year — wages, vests, estimated tax.
- Then decide whether this week’s window is the place to execute the this-year number.
A calendar event is still not a sell signal. Volume is not your plan. The first unlock after a listing often does not force a sale, and it does not decide your tax year either.
People get hurt on unlock week when they decide from the print. The work is the year map.
Run the years
Load the sample or upload an equity statement and pick the years. That is the first analysis: a tax-aware, year-by-year sell plan from what you actually hold.
Run the sample or upload a statement
Internal links: When to sell RSUs · RSU tax if I sell this year
Lakefolio is educational software, not tax, legal, or investment advice.